Why the rise in cases of Autism?

 Donald Trump's Health Secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr; is about  to release a report about the possible causes behind the rising numbers of people with autism.

RFK Jr has long said the  cause may be common childhood vaccines such as the measles, mumps and rubella jab - a claim that the vast majority of scientists say is wrong.

Edward Jenner Vaccinating a Boy
Eugene-Ernest Hillemacher (1818-1887)
Photo Credit: Wellcome Trust [Public Domain]

The report will also blame other factors, including women taking paracetamol during pregnancy, and having low levels of the pre-natal vitamin folic acid, according to The Wall Street Journal.

RFK Jr has also previously said that the increase  must be due to something  harmful in the environment...

Most medical bodies recommend paracetamol as one of the few pain relievers it is safe to take during pregnancy. And last year a large study found such use was not linked with a higher risk of autism, ADHD or intellectual disability.

Low folic acid is not recognised as causing autism, but it does raise the risk of the birth defect spina bifida...

Most scientists are sceptical of JFK Jr's environmental theory of autism. But what could be the real explanation?

RFK Jr is right that the autism diagnosis rates have been rising in the US and in most western countries for several decades.

In the UK, the rate of diagnosed cases of autism has increased eightfold over the last 20 years according to a study of GP records...

It may seem on the face of it that increasing exposure to some environmental toxin is an obvious suspect. But experts say there is a more compelling explanation - diagnoses have risen because the definition  has broadened.

Autism once meant having severe deficits in language and social interactions. Those affected may have been unable to speak or look after themselves..

Doctors now use the term autism to cover a much broader range in abilities, a shift driven by changes in the way autism is defined that expanded the term to include people with milder symptoms...

Professor Allen Francis [a psychiatrist] believes broadening the criteria meant some people are being misdiagnosed, and for them, the label isn't always helpful. "Our intentions were good, but we underestimated the unintended consequences of adding the new diagnosis," he said...

Other possible contributors to the rising case numbers include the reduced stigma around the term. Many people at the milder end of the spectrum now don;t see autism as a disorder, instead seeing it as a different way of interacting with the world: a form of neurodiversity...

Another driver could be  parents seeking autism diagnoses for children if they are having difficulties at school, either in their work or friendships...

We don't know yet exactly what the report on autism will say. But Professor Francis predicted that vaccines will again bear the brunt of the blame. RFK Jr is using the completely unproven pretext of environmental toxins to support his wildly wrong conspiracy theory about vaccines," he told The i Paper.

"This is madness."

(Clare Wilson, The i, 2025)

Who are the authors of this report coming from the U.S. Department of Health and how much will they be influenced by the views of the health secretary? Will they be medical or scientific  professionals? Will the report be published in a peer-reviewed journal and most importantly will it further erode trust in vaccinations?

Hasn't the label 'Asperger's syndrome'  been dropped? Isn't it now part of 'Autism spectrum disorder'?